中國科學院孫六全老師作了一場題為“Joint Modeling of Recurrent and Terminal Events Using Additive Models(復發(fā)性和終端事件的聯(lián)合建模使用加模型)”的在職研究生學術報告。

　　孫六全，于北京大學獲博士學位(1998)，研究員，博士生導師。2008年獲中科院數(shù)學院突出科研成果獎。主要研究方向是：生存分析、生物與醫(yī)學統(tǒng)計、復發(fā)事件和縱向數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計推斷、區(qū)間刪失數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計分析、各種不完全觀察數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計分析、數(shù)理統(tǒng)計及其應用。

　　在這篇文章中，我們提出了復發(fā)性事件數(shù)據(jù)與終端事件分析的聯(lián)合建模方法。我們用乘法脆弱用于條件復發(fā)事件發(fā)生率，并為終端事件的添加劑危害脆弱模型指定的添加劑率模型。共享脆弱用來占經(jīng)常性和終端事件。一種估計方程方法之間的關聯(lián)在聯(lián)合模式的邊際成本和關聯(lián)參數(shù)發(fā)達，所提出的估計量的漸進性質(zhì)成立。所提出的估計量的有限樣本性能是通過模擬研究檢查，慢性心臟衰竭患者的醫(yī)療費用研究的申請中示出。

　　原文：In this article, we propose a joint modeling approach for the analysis of recurrent event data with a terminal event. We specify an additive rates model with a multiplicative frailty for the conditional recurrent event rate, and an additive hazards frailty model for the terminal event. A shared frailty is used to account for the association between recurrent and terminal events .An estimating equation approach is developed for the marginal and association parameters in the joint model, and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimators is examined through simulation studies, and an application to a medical cost study of chronic heart failure patients is illustrated.